March 2026 brings a freight market that is slowly tightening after more than two years of excess capacity. Spot rates are climbing across all three major equipment types, carrier rejection rates are trending upward, and diesel prices are providing modest relief compared to the start of the year. Here is what shippers need to know heading into Q2.
National Average Spot Rates
Spot rates have strengthened steadily through the first quarter of 2026. As of late March, national averages across the three primary equipment types are:
- Dry van: $2.28 per mile — up approximately 6% from January and roughly 11% above March 2025 levels. The dry van market remains the most balanced of the three segments, with gradual rate improvement driven by seasonal demand rather than capacity shocks.
- Reefer: $2.72 per mile — the strongest year-over-year gain among the three modes, up nearly 14% from March 2025. Early produce season out of Florida, South Texas, and the Carolinas is the primary driver. Reefer capacity tightens predictably every spring, but this year the tightening started earlier than usual.
- Flatbed: $2.91 per mile — up 8% year-over-year, supported by construction activity and infrastructure projects. The flatbed market has historically been the most capacity-constrained of the three, and 2026 is following that pattern as federal infrastructure spending continues to create demand in the Southeast and Midwest.
These figures represent all-in rates including fuel surcharges. Linehaul-only rates (excluding fuel) are running roughly $0.45 to $0.55 per mile lower depending on the lane and equipment type.
Contract vs. Spot Rate Spread
The contract-to-spot spread has narrowed to 8% to 12% across most lanes and equipment types. In a loose market, this spread can widen to 20% or more as spot rates fall below contract commitments. The current narrowing signals a healthier market where contract rates more closely reflect actual conditions.
For shippers, a narrowing spread means that spot market savings are diminishing. If you have been relying heavily on spot capacity to beat your contract rates, now is the time to lock in favorable contract terms before Q2 tightening pushes spot rates higher. Shippers who secured annual contracts in January at lower rates are currently benefiting, but those contracts will face upward pressure at renewal.
Diesel Prices Provide Some Relief
The national average for diesel is currently $3.89 per gallon, down from $4.12 in January. This 5.6% decline provides modest relief on fuel surcharges, which typically represent 20% to 30% of the total freight rate depending on the carrier's fuel schedule.
Lower diesel prices benefit both shippers (through reduced fuel surcharges) and carriers (through improved operating margins). However, diesel remains well above the sub-$3.50 levels of mid-2024, and any geopolitical disruption or refinery maintenance season could push prices back above $4.00. Smart shippers are budgeting for diesel in the $3.75 to $4.25 range for Q2 planning purposes.
Regional Capacity Conditions
Freight capacity is not uniform across the country. Two distinctly different conditions are shaping regional markets right now:
Southeast: Tight and Getting Tighter
Produce season is the headline story. Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and South Texas are experiencing significant capacity tightness as reefer trucks are absorbed by the annual produce harvest. This creates a ripple effect: even dry van and flatbed capacity tightens in the Southeast because some carriers reposition equipment to chase higher-paying reefer loads.
Shippers in the Southeast should expect rate premiums of 10% to 20% above national averages for outbound loads through mid-May. Booking 5 to 7 days ahead — rather than the typical 2 to 3 days — is strongly recommended to avoid last-minute spot market premiums. If you ship temperature-controlled products out of the Southeast, work with your freight dispatch partner to secure committed capacity early.
Midwest: Loose With Pockets of Demand
The Midwest remains one of the most shipper-friendly regions in the current market. Capacity is readily available on most lanes, and rates are running below national averages. The exception is outbound flatbed from construction-heavy corridors in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois, where infrastructure projects are creating localized tightness.
Shippers in the Midwest have the advantage of competitive rates and flexible scheduling. This is a good window to negotiate favorable contract terms or test new carrier relationships while capacity is plentiful.
Carrier Rejection Rates Trending Up
The Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) — which measures the percentage of contracted loads that carriers decline to haul — has risen from 6.2% in January to 8.1% in late March. While still below the 15% to 20% levels that indicate a true tight market, the upward trend is significant.
Rising rejection rates mean that carriers are becoming more selective about which loads they accept. Loads with poor detention histories, difficult delivery locations, or below-market rates are the first to be rejected. For shippers, this is a signal to invest in being a “shipper of choice” — fast loading and unloading, fair rates, and respectful treatment of drivers all reduce the likelihood of your loads being rejected.
If your loads are being rejected more frequently, it may be time to reassess your rate competitiveness or work with a professional dispatch service that can secure reliable capacity through established carrier relationships.
Q2 2026 Outlook
The freight market is expected to continue its gradual tightening through Q2 2026. Several factors support this outlook:
- Produce season peaks in April and May, pulling reefer and dry van capacity into the Southeast and creating rate pressure on outbound lanes from Florida, Texas, Georgia, and the Carolinas.
- Construction season accelerates, increasing flatbed demand across the Sun Belt and Midwest. Federal infrastructure spending continues to flow, supporting sustained flatbed rates.
- Carrier exits have stabilized, but the industry has shed roughly 90,000 operating authorities since the 2022 peak. The supply-demand balance continues to normalize, which supports gradual rate increases.
- Inventory restocking is underway, with retailers and manufacturers rebuilding safety stock ahead of summer selling season. This incremental demand supports both LTL and FTL volumes.
Shippers should plan for spot rate increases of 5% to 10% between now and June, with larger spikes possible on seasonal lanes (Southeast outbound, West Coast import corridors). Locking in Q2 contract rates now — before the seasonal peak — is the most effective hedge against spot market volatility.
What Shippers Should Do Now
- Review your contract rates. If your current contracts were negotiated during the soft market of late 2025, they may still be competitive — but spot rates are catching up. Know your spread.
- Extend booking lead times. Move from 2-3 day booking windows to 5-7 days, especially for Southeast outbound and reefer freight.
- Reduce detention at your facilities. With rejection rates rising, carriers are increasingly selective. Fast, driver-friendly facilities get better rates and more reliable service.
- Diversify your carrier base. Do not rely on a single carrier or broker. Maintain relationships with 3 to 5 reliable carriers per lane to ensure coverage when capacity tightens.
- Monitor diesel trends. Current diesel prices are favorable but volatile. Build fuel surcharge variability into your Q2 freight budget.
Markets change — preparation does not. If you need help navigating Q2 capacity and rate trends, request a quote and our team will analyze your lanes and recommend strategies to manage your freight costs through the seasonal peak.